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  • Rubber inflection point?
    Dec 07, 2017

    One is what we call the supply side, the current situation is not a sustainable tense situation

    Second, in such a large-scale water to the direct rise of the pattern, there will be inflection point

    Third, it is particularly obvious recently that in the case of a stronger dollar, a substantial devaluation of the overall south-east Asian currency, especially the Thai baht, is very obvious and will have an impact on the rear.

    From the supply side, we look at domestic production, domestic production from 08 onwards, basically stable in about 80.85 million tons, the year 8 months of cutting, from April until November, cutting output is also a gradual increase in the process, then the annual 8, 9, October is the second High-yield period, October is the highest, from the current April 2016 to August, data statistics to reduce production of about 8%, there are some climatic factors, yield, etc. will have some impact, but overall, into the September until the October, especially in the Yunnan region, his cut is more normal, And the price has stabilized at 11 5, to 11 block 8, such a price so plastic farming, a cut in the enthusiasm of the labor, factory production enthusiasm has not received too much repression, in Hainan, on the one hand, the climate, on the one hand, the whole industry in Hainan group value-added will shift their direction, The overall decline in production is mainly Hainan, the words of Yunnan has not been affected, we also know the whole, Shanghai exchange words of the whole latex of this standard, the brand is mostly concentrated in Yunnan, Hainan's overall ratio is in decline, so from the supply side of the judgment, Hainan not too much a tense situation, Instead, there have been some changes in the recent market, so this change is in an overall market is very bullish situation, recently some of the stock is not out, or unwilling to sell to the corresponding sales channels, such a case, should be said if they 11 5 or even 12 block, According to one of their processing costs, there is a profit space exists, but they do not do so, such a hoarding situation, the future supply pressure release will have a relatively large risk, this is one of China's supply-side situation.