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  • Future trend of rubber industry
    Dec 07, 2017

    In theory, the output should be more than 12 million tonnes in 2015, only 11.6 million tonnes in real terms. Despite the rebound in gum prices in the four quarter this year, production will not exceed last year because of a big cut in production earlier this year. In the supply side, the largest gum country Thailand due to extreme weather frequency production and a larger scale; the second-largest producer, Indonesia, has also cut production, so it will not produce more than 11.6 million tonnes this year. Now the market is basically sold out, only last year's gum to sell, resources become more and more tense.

    1. What is the price of selling 300,000 tonnes of old gum stock in Thailand? How much impact is expected to have on the market?

    The tobacco slice is priced at more than 70 baht/kg, and the other is 68 baht/kg, higher than the cost. Plastic farmers parade, to prevent the government out of glue, because the price of plastic is not easy to improve, the government also suppressed the price of plastic, so no success.

    2. Rubber production is motivated by tapping (given the rising cost of labor, many people are unwilling to come to tapping) and the impact of the new tapping area (for example, rubber prices rose in 11 and 12, the number of Hevea trees is increased), so what do you think the production of rubber will change next year?

    Rubber trees grow at around 6 years, so most of the rubbers produced next year come from gum trees planted in 2009-2011 years. This year, the global production of 11.6 million tons of plastic, consumption reached 12.5 million tons, sales slightly greater than production. 2017 full-throttle production, the world will not be more than 12 million tons of plastic, because first although the increase in cutting area but tapping need artificial. The present situation is that the labor costs from the original 10 yuan/kg to 12 yuan/kg, there are not many people willing to go to tapping; Secondly, the first year after the first cut in the production of Hevea brasiliensis is not high, only the equivalent of the mature big rubber tree 60%, cut to the 56th year of normal quantity.